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With the same reasoning - they track goals instead of points - they call their point spreads ‘goallines’. Before you look at the charts (if you haven’t already), guess which percentage among favorited teams triumph when they are favored by 3.5 points. In order to win, you always need both teams to outscore the opponent by 10 points in some interval of the game, right? Parlays are appealing to sports bettors because you can win some big money by betting on multiple games at once - you just have to do your research and ensure you are making smart betting decisions because you can’t make a single mistake or your bet won’t cash. So bet on the Big Ten. Both of those teams finished .500 or below in conference play, playing TEN games against ranked opponents. For example, Advanced Football Analytics ran a multivariate linear regression on the outcomes of American football games

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It should come as no surprise that as a team is favored to out-score its opponent by greater points, the higher the probability becomes that they will prevail outright. It might not be a huge surprise that 3.5-point favorites only prevail in 60% of games played, but the fact that they don’t even cover 50% of those games should be. If I had asked what percent of 10-point favorites prevail outright, your guess would have likely been a lot closer to the actual number. States and tribal nations have proven to be effective regulators of gaming--including sports betting--and the more than 5,000 regulators nationwide have decades of experience overseeing gaming operations within their jurisdictions. I can’t get on board with pricing Green Bay like the Super Bowl favorite given its weekly escape acts - the Packers are 5-1 in games decided by less than a touchdown - likely to eventually swing against them

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